China Could Seize Taiwan Offshore Islands Within 6 Months: Report

China could seize control of Taiwan’s offshore Kinmen Islands within the next six months, believing that the United States would not take a forceful response to its aggression, according to a new report.
“Xi may believe these factors will preclude a timely and forceful U.S. response to his Kinmen campaign before the inauguration of a new U.S. president in January 2025.”
The report’s publication comes amid heightened tension between China and Taiwan, following the January election of Lai Ching-te who was sworn in as Taiwan’s president in May.
To seize Kinmen, the report said that China could make its first move “three to four months” from now, after the Chinese Coast Guard “normalizes incursions into Kinmen’s restricted and prohibited waters until such incursions occur nearly daily.”
Next, China would start attempts to board and detain Taiwanese ships in waters that China “does not undisputedly control” and would begin to fly “ostensibly civilian surveillance drones directly over Kinemen’s military bases,” according to the report.
The researchers said the Chinese Coast Guard would either orchestrate or take advantage of an “unfortunate incident,” and use the event “to set up a ‘quarantine’ zone around Kinmen and prevent the delivery of any additional weapons or ‘contraband’ to the islands.”
“The quarantine still allows most civilian ships to pass after an inspection but blocks the passage of most ROC government vessels,” the researchers wrote, referring to Taiwan’s official name, the Republic of China.
To further isolate the Kinmen Islands, China would subsequently impose a no-fly zone over the area and damage the island’s submarine cables connected to Taiwan, according to the report.
The researchers predicted that the Taiwanese government would eventually concede, agreeing to turn the Kinmen Islands into a “demilitarized zone” (DMZ).
“The PRC eventually establishes its own outposts and government liaison offices in Kinmen with the justification of overseeing the demilitarization and keeping the peace. It may operate these institutions jointly with Kinmen’s civilian authorities,” the researchers wrote, referring to China’s official name, the People’s Republic of China.
Ultimately, China would turn Kinmen into “an exemplar of the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ scheme it wishes to impose on Taiwan,” according to the report.
“The CCP will use its media and information warfare to promote narratives of Kinmen’s freedom and economic prosperity, thus increasing the appeal of such a model for Taiwan’s other outlying islands and eventually Taiwan itself,” the researchers wrote.
“The benefits of seizing Kinmen are less about the strategic value of Kinmen itself than about the psychological effect such an operation would have,” the researchers wrote.
The psychological effects included a loss of morale within the Taiwanese military and a loss of confidence in Taiwan about the United States and other friendly countries coming to the island’s aid in the event of a Chinese military attack, according to the report.
Additionally, the Lai administration may be confronted with a new political crisis, the researchers added, while the opposition parties may be able to push Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan towards having greater diplomatic and economic engagement with China and reducing its reliance on the United States.
“The operation [against Kinmen] would therefore increase the chances that Taiwan capitulate in a future conflict,” the researchers warned.
The report suggested many preemptive measures, including having the Taiwanese government develop a merchant maritime force and establish a larger Coast Guard presence around Kinmen.
If China carries out its quarantine against Kinmen, one recommended action that the United States and its allies can coordinate is to have their warships transit the Taiwan Strait, according to the report. A second recommendation is to jointly impose financial sanctions and trade restrictions against China.
To prevent the likelihood of any future aggression by the CCP against Taiwan’s offshore islands, including the Kinmen Islands and Matsu Islands, the U.S. Congress should also pass an amendment to the Taiwan Relations Act to help these islands “resist coercion from the CCP.”
“The United States’ failure to effectively respond to such a crisis would have cascading negative effects on the faith of U.S. allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines in the U.S. defensive umbrella,” the researchers wrote. “Maintaining Taiwanese sovereignty over these islands is thus a precarious but vital task.”